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Seismic Detection Model Using Machine Learning to Protect the Public from Landslide and Earthquake Disasters in Kenya

Received: 10 September 2021     Accepted: 4 October 2021     Published: 15 October 2021
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Abstract

Earthquakes and tremors are a common occurrence throughout the world, mostly in China, Japan and Indonesia. In Kenya, we experience a lot of tremors and landslides during the rainy seasons that have extensive negative social, economic, and environmental impacts. These damages include loss of human life, financial loss and destruction of infrastructure. This becomes a lagging factor towards achieving the Vision 2030 and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study used secondary data, obtained from World Wide Standardized Seismograph Station (WWSSSN) in Kilimambogo. Stochastic artificial neural network was adopted to identify prone areas to the said natural disasters, measure the socioeconomic impacts and build a predictive model for landslides, tremor and earthquakes in Kenya. It was evident that landslides are destructive in nature through observable measurable impacts on people. They increase the social and economic burden on the affected people. 64.76% of the measurable impacts affect human beings directly while the rest affect cattle and crops. Along the Great rift valley, most earthquakes and landslides took place. This is attributed to the active seismic activities. Kenya experiences earthquakes of magnitude m < 4. Our model achieved root mean square of 0.435. Furthermore, we got R2=0.80 for testing dataset. This implied that 80% of data was trainable by the model. Therefore, the predictive neural network model is efficient and accurate in forecasting, and more importantly is a good fit model.

Published in International Journal of Data Science and Analysis (Volume 7, Issue 5)
DOI 10.11648/j.ijdsa.20210705.11
Page(s) 117-121
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Earthquake, Landslide, Neural Network

References
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[7] Jafri, Y. Z., Sami, M., Waseem, A., Murtaza, G., and Akbar, S. (2012). Stochastic approaches for time series forecasting of rate of dust fall: A case study of northwest of Balochistan, Pakistan. International Journal of Physical Sciences, 7 (4): 676–686.
[8] Kajitani, Y., Chang, S. E., and Tatano, H. (2013). Economic impacts of the 2011 tohoku-oki earthquake and tsunami. Earthquake Spectra, 29 (1_suppl): 457–478.
[9] Koubi, V. (2018). Climate change and disasters: Sustainable development impacts, trends, interlinkages with migration and conflicts, and likely scenarios.
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[12] Mulwa, J. K., Kimata, F., Suzuki, S., and Kuria, Z. N. (2014). The seismicity in kenya (east africa) for the period 1906–2010: A review. Journal of African Earth Sciences, 89: 72–78.
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  • APA Style

    Moses Kung'u Githu, Edwin Kagereki, Serah Munyua. (2021). Seismic Detection Model Using Machine Learning to Protect the Public from Landslide and Earthquake Disasters in Kenya. International Journal of Data Science and Analysis, 7(5), 117-121. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijdsa.20210705.11

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    ACS Style

    Moses Kung'u Githu; Edwin Kagereki; Serah Munyua. Seismic Detection Model Using Machine Learning to Protect the Public from Landslide and Earthquake Disasters in Kenya. Int. J. Data Sci. Anal. 2021, 7(5), 117-121. doi: 10.11648/j.ijdsa.20210705.11

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    AMA Style

    Moses Kung'u Githu, Edwin Kagereki, Serah Munyua. Seismic Detection Model Using Machine Learning to Protect the Public from Landslide and Earthquake Disasters in Kenya. Int J Data Sci Anal. 2021;7(5):117-121. doi: 10.11648/j.ijdsa.20210705.11

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  • @article{10.11648/j.ijdsa.20210705.11,
      author = {Moses Kung'u Githu and Edwin Kagereki and Serah Munyua},
      title = {Seismic Detection Model Using Machine Learning to Protect the Public from Landslide and Earthquake Disasters in Kenya},
      journal = {International Journal of Data Science and Analysis},
      volume = {7},
      number = {5},
      pages = {117-121},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ijdsa.20210705.11},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijdsa.20210705.11},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijdsa.20210705.11},
      abstract = {Earthquakes and tremors are a common occurrence throughout the world, mostly in China, Japan and Indonesia. In Kenya, we experience a lot of tremors and landslides during the rainy seasons that have extensive negative social, economic, and environmental impacts. These damages include loss of human life, financial loss and destruction of infrastructure. This becomes a lagging factor towards achieving the Vision 2030 and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study used secondary data, obtained from World Wide Standardized Seismograph Station (WWSSSN) in Kilimambogo. Stochastic artificial neural network was adopted to identify prone areas to the said natural disasters, measure the socioeconomic impacts and build a predictive model for landslides, tremor and earthquakes in Kenya. It was evident that landslides are destructive in nature through observable measurable impacts on people. They increase the social and economic burden on the affected people. 64.76% of the measurable impacts affect human beings directly while the rest affect cattle and crops. Along the Great rift valley, most earthquakes and landslides took place. This is attributed to the active seismic activities. Kenya experiences earthquakes of magnitude m 2=0.80 for testing dataset. This implied that 80% of data was trainable by the model. Therefore, the predictive neural network model is efficient and accurate in forecasting, and more importantly is a good fit model.},
     year = {2021}
    }
    

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  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Seismic Detection Model Using Machine Learning to Protect the Public from Landslide and Earthquake Disasters in Kenya
    AU  - Moses Kung'u Githu
    AU  - Edwin Kagereki
    AU  - Serah Munyua
    Y1  - 2021/10/15
    PY  - 2021
    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijdsa.20210705.11
    DO  - 10.11648/j.ijdsa.20210705.11
    T2  - International Journal of Data Science and Analysis
    JF  - International Journal of Data Science and Analysis
    JO  - International Journal of Data Science and Analysis
    SP  - 117
    EP  - 121
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2575-1891
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijdsa.20210705.11
    AB  - Earthquakes and tremors are a common occurrence throughout the world, mostly in China, Japan and Indonesia. In Kenya, we experience a lot of tremors and landslides during the rainy seasons that have extensive negative social, economic, and environmental impacts. These damages include loss of human life, financial loss and destruction of infrastructure. This becomes a lagging factor towards achieving the Vision 2030 and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study used secondary data, obtained from World Wide Standardized Seismograph Station (WWSSSN) in Kilimambogo. Stochastic artificial neural network was adopted to identify prone areas to the said natural disasters, measure the socioeconomic impacts and build a predictive model for landslides, tremor and earthquakes in Kenya. It was evident that landslides are destructive in nature through observable measurable impacts on people. They increase the social and economic burden on the affected people. 64.76% of the measurable impacts affect human beings directly while the rest affect cattle and crops. Along the Great rift valley, most earthquakes and landslides took place. This is attributed to the active seismic activities. Kenya experiences earthquakes of magnitude m 2=0.80 for testing dataset. This implied that 80% of data was trainable by the model. Therefore, the predictive neural network model is efficient and accurate in forecasting, and more importantly is a good fit model.
    VL  - 7
    IS  - 5
    ER  - 

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Author Information
  • Department of Computer Sciences, St. Pauls University, Nairobi, Kenya

  • Department of Statistics and Actuarial Sciences, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, Nairobi, Kenya

  • Department of Environmental Studies, Karatina University, Nyeri, Kenya

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